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Europe Economic Research |
Spanish GDP declined 2.0% q/q saar in 1Q13
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The Spanish economy contracted 2.0%
q/q saar in 1Q13 (or 0.5% q/q, not annualized). This marks the
7th consecutive quarter of contraction
for the Spanish economy. The outcome is in line with last week's
tracking estimate of the Bank of Spain and our
forecast.
The fiscal tightening
plan was very back-loaded last year and it probably explains the
persistent weakness at the beginning of 2013, as the economy keeps
adjusting to the fiscal consolidation path amid exceptionally high
unemployment. One should bear in mind that GDP was supported in
3Q12 (-0.3% q/q not annualized) by spending being pulled forward
due to the September VAT hike, so that the outcome for 4Q12 (-0.8
q/q not annualized) was lower as a compensation. Overall, the weak
state of the economy in the last part of 2012 is then broadly
confirmed. The Spanish statistics office mentioned that the
protracted weakness of domestic demand was partly offset by the
positive impact of net exports.
No details were
published with today's report to analyze the components of demand.
Our tracking forecast based on business surveys point to a
contraction at a similar pace (-1.8%q/q saar) in the current
quarter, then at -0.8%q/q saar pace in 3Q13 before stabilizing in
the last part of this year. For the time being, the business
surveys do not suggest much progress. In the April reading of the
European Commission survey, Spanish economic sentiment rose further
0.9pts to 89.7, which is 6pts above the level in August last year
when the ECB announced the OMT. On the other hand, the Spanish PMI
has declined to 44.8 in December 2012.
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Spanish GDP
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%q/q saar
and %oya
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1Q11
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2Q11
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3Q11
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4Q11
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1Q12
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2Q12
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3Q12
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4Q12
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1Q13
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GDP, %q/q
saar
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1.2
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1.0
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-0.2
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-2.0
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-1.8
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-1.5
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-1.3
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-3.1
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-2.0
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GDP,
%oya
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0.5
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0.5
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0.6
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0.0
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-0.7
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-1.4
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-1.6
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-1.9
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-2.0
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Source:
INE
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(44-20) 7742
-7644
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