JPM-pp1

Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 July 2015

Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited (DFI SP)

1H15 Result – Weak result ~23% below JPMf

Neutral

Price: $8.49

30 Jul 2015

Price Target: $9.70

PT End Date: 30 Jun 2016

Dairy Farm reported a weak 1H15 result ~23% below JPMf. The result was driven by weak performance in Food with the company attributing the significant decline in earnings to cost pressures, FX headwinds and food deflation. We continue to see limited positive catalysts in the near term and would add the recent weakness in the HK retail environment and strength of the USD as additional headwinds for DFI.

Main points

· 1H15 turnover US$5,593m (JPMf US$5,790m), up 5.6% yoy (JPMf +9.3%).

· 1H15 gross profit US$1,632m (JPMf US$1,729m), implying gross margin of 29.2% (JPMf 29.9%).

· 1H15 EBIT exclusive of non-trading items US$202m (JPMf US$268m), implying EBIT margin of 3.6% (JPMf 4.6%).

· 1H15 EBIT exclusive of non-trading items + equity accounted profit US$234m (JPMf US$302m).

· 1H15 NPAT US$192m (JPMf US$246m), down 18.1% yoy (JPMf +5.1%). We note full year JPMf is currently in line with consensus.

· Interim dividend of US6.5cps declared, below JPMf US7.0cps.

J.P. Morgan comment

· Overall, this was a particularly weak result and we expect DFI’s share price to react negatively. We note the company reported significant earnings decline despite the positive impact from the company’s acquisition of a 20% stake in Yonghui as well as the acquisition of San Miu Supermarket in Macau.

· Food performance was particularly weak with supermarket/hypermarket operating margins down ~130bps and operating profit down ~28% yoy. The company attributed the weak performance to the following factors: 1) cost pressures and food deflation for certain commodities squeezing margins in Food; 2) Higher rental and labour costs in HK; 3) Significantly lower profits in Singapore due to competitive pressures, higher rents and a weaker SGD; 4) Investments in Malaysia to attract customers; 5) High labour costs and rise in shrinkage costs associated with greater fresh sales, more rigorous stock management and store rationalisation in Indonesia; and 6) Struggling hypermarket sales in the Philippines.

· Health & Beauty sales growth also slowed on a subsidiary level, with operating profit declining ~8% due to ~90bps of operating margin compression. The company attributed the weaker performance to: 1) Lower tourist arrivals in HK & Macau; 2) Lower profitability in Malaysia following the introduction of the GST on 1st April; and 3) Wage and rent increases in Indonesia.

· Home Furnishings profitability continued to grow strongly with operating profit increasing 32% yoy and operating margins also increasing ~90bps yoy. However, strong performance in Home Furnishings could not offset the weaker performance in Food and Health & Beauty.

· On outlook, the company noted that margin pressure continues to impact financial performance for Food. The Group’s results were also negatively impacted by adverse FX movements.

· We previously highlighted our view that we see limited positive catalysts for DFI in the short term due to: 1) weak sales and margin outlook in SE Asian countries for its key Food division; and 2) a relatively expensive valuation given growth prospects. In addition, we note the following short- to medium-term headwinds: a) A weak HK retail environment likely to impact sales growth negatively and margins for both the Food and Health & Beauty business; and b) FX headwinds for key SE Asian currencies. Nevertheless, we also note a relatively stable shareholder register which may provide some share price support.

Table 1: Dairy Farm Profit & Loss Statement – Actual vs JPMf

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

JPMf

1H13A

2H13A

FY13A

1H14A

2H14A

FY14A

1H15A

1H15E

Total turnover

5,101.7

5,255.7

10,357.4

5,299.0

5,709.3

11,008.3

5,593.4

5,789.7

% Growth

7.0%

4.4%

5.7%

3.9%

8.6%

6.3%

5.6%

9.3%

COGS

-3,600.7

-3,669.7

-7,270.4

-3,721.5

-3,995.8

-7,717.3

-3,961.5

-4,060.3

Gross profit

1,501.0

1,586.0

3,087.0

1,577.5

1,713.5

3,291.0

1,631.9

1,729.4

Gross margin

29.42%

30.18%

29.80%

29.77%

30.01%

29.90%

29.18%

29.9%

Other operating income (underlying business)

86.2

63.4

149.6

75.2

80.1

155.3

79.6

76.0

CODB

-1,330.3

-1,384.0

-2,714.3

-1,407.4

-1,514.6

-2,922.0

-1,509.7

-1,537.0

CODB/Turnover

26.1%

26.3%

26.2%

26.6%

26.5%

26.5%

27.0%

26.5%

EBIT (excludes interest income)

256.9

265.4

522.3

245.3

279.0

524.3

201.8

268.3

EBIT margin

5.04%

5.05%

5.04%

4.63%

4.89%

4.76%

3.61%

4.6%

EBIT growth

-7.8%

33.6%

9.5%

-4.5%

5.1%

0.4%

-17.7%

9.4%

Share of associates and JVs (excluding non-trading items)

22.1

46.8

68.9

21.6

47.3

68.9

31.7

33.9

Net interest

-5.2

2.1

-3.1

1.5

-3.4

-1.9

-5.6

-7.2

Non-trading items

0.8

26.0

26.8

10.4

-0.7

9.7

-1.2

0.0

PBT

274.6

340.3

614.9

278.8

322.2

601.0

226.7

295.0

Income tax expense

-43.3

-58.7

-102.0

-43.9

-49.4

-93.3

-39.5

-48.0

Non-controlling interests

-2.2

-9.8

-12.0

-1.2

2.6

1.4

4.3

-1.3

NPAT

229.1

271.8

500.9

233.7

275.4

509.1

191.5

245.7

NPAT growth

-5.7%

33.6%

12.2%

2.0%

1.3%

1.6%

-18.1%

5.1%

DPS (USc)

6.5

16.5

23.0

6.5

16.5

23.0

6.5

7.0

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

Table 2: Dairy Farm – Underlying Profitability

1H13A

2H13A

FY13A

1H14A

2H14A

FY14A

1H15A

Sales (including associates and JVs)

6,032.8

6,398.9

12,431.7

6,311.5

6,791.3

13,102.8

8,011.2

% Growth

10.3%

5.4%

7.7%

4.6%

6.1%

5.4%

26.9%

EBIT (underlying operations)

256.9

265.4

522.3

245.3

279.0

524.3

201.8

Add: Share of associates and JVs

22.1

46.8

68.9

21.6

47.3

68.9

31.7

EBIT + Share of associates and JVs

279.0

312.2

591.2

266.9

326.3

593.2

233.5

% Growth

-7.5%

30.6%

9.3%

-4.3%

4.5%

0.3%

-12.5%

Source: Company reports.

Table 3: Dairy Farm – Food Division Financials

US$m

1H13A

2H13A

FY13A

1H14A

2H14A

FY14A

1H15A

Sales (including associates and JVs)

Supermarkets/hypermarkets

3,216.5

3,242.8

6,459.3

3,226.9

3,317.6

6,544.5

4,684.0

% Growth

11.7%

1.5%

6.3%

0.3%

2.3%

1.3%

45.2%

Convenience stores

866.1

914.8

1,780.9

904.3

955.3

1,859.6

918.9

% Growth

6.7%

5.0%

5.8%

4.4%

4.4%

4.4%

1.6%

Total

4,082.6

4,157.6

8,240.2

4,131.2

4,272.9

8,404.1

5,602.9

% Growth

10.6%

2.3%

6.2%

1.2%

2.8%

2.0%

35.6%

Sales (subsidiaries only)

Supermarkets/hypermarkets

2,985.8

2,989.1

5,974.9

3,005.2

3,244.0

6,249.2

3,212.3

% Growth

5.7%

1.4%

3.5%

0.6%

8.5%

4.6%

6.9%

Convenience stores

866.1

914.8

1,780.9

904.3

955.3

1,859.6

918.9

% Growth

6.7%

5.0%

5.8%

4.4%

4.4%

4.4%

1.6%

Total

3,851.9

3,903.9

7,755.8

3,909.5

4,199.3

8,108.8

4,131.2

% Growth

5.9%

2.2%

4.0%

1.5%

7.6%

4.6%

5.7%

Operating profit

Supermarkets/hypermarkets

131.6

116.3

247.9

117.5

108.4

225.9

85.1

% Margin

4.41%

3.89%

4.15%

3.91%

3.34%

3.61%

2.65%

% Growth

-11.0%

62.7%

13.0%

-10.7%

-6.8%

-8.9%

-27.6%

Convenience stores

30.2

40.6

70.8

30.8

41.9

72.7

26.4

% Margin

3.49%

4.44%

3.98%

3.41%

4.39%

3.91%

2.87%

% Growth

-1.6%

4.4%

1.7%

2.0%

3.2%

2.7%

-14.3%

Total

161.8

156.9

318.7

148.3

150.3

298.6

111.5

% Margin

4.20%

4.02%

4.11%

3.79%

3.58%

3.68%

2.70%

% Growth

-15.8%

62.1%

10.3%

-8.3%

-4.2%

-6.3%

-24.8%

Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data.

Table 4: Dairy Farm – Health & Beauty Division Financials

US$m

1H13A

2H13A

FY13A

1H14A

2H14A

FY14A

1H15A

Sales (including associates and JVs)

1,084.0

1,134.5

2,218.5

1,185.1

1,269.4

2,454.5

1,284.1

% Growth

11.4%

10.2%

10.7%

9.3%

11.9%

10.6%

8.4%

Sales (subsidiaries only)

1,064.2

1,115.7

2,179.9

1,163.3

1,238.8

2,402.1

1,191.1

% Growth

11.2%

10.3%

10.7%

9.3%

11.0%

10.2%

2.4%

Operating profit

95.8

101.9

197.7

97.3

121.5

218.8

89.4

% Margin

9.00%

9.13%

9.07%

8.36%

9.81%

9.11%

7.51%

% Growth

8.4%

2.8%

5.4%

1.6%

19.2%

10.7%

-8.1%

Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data.

Table 5: Dairy Farm – Home Furnishing Division Financials

US$m

1H13A

2H13A

FY13A

1H14A

2H14A

FY14A

1H15A

Sales (including associates and JVs)

185.6

236.1

421.7

226.2

271.2

497.4

271.1

% Growth

6.7%

17.2%

12.3%

21.9%

14.9%

18.0%

19.8%

Sales (subsidiaries only)

185.6

236.1

421.7

226.2

271.2

497.4

271.1

% Growth

6.7%

17.2%

12.3%

21.9%

14.9%

18.0%

19.8%

Operating profit

17.6

26.0

43.6

19.7

31.0

50.7

26.0

% Margin

9.48%

11.01%

10.34%

8.71%

11.43%

10.19%

9.59%

% Growth

4.1%

24.4%

15.3%

11.9%

19.2%

16.3%

32.0%

Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data.


 

Investment Thesis

We have a Neutral recommendation on Dairy Farm. We see limited positive share price catalysts in the short term due to: (1) a weak sales and margin outlook in SE Asian countries for its key Food division in the short to medium term; and (2) a relatively expensive valuation, given the muted growth outlook. Nevertheless, we believe the share price will be supported by a relatively stable shareholder register and some improving momentum.

Valuation

Our Jun-16 price target of US$9.70 is based on a 20x P/E. Our target P/E of 20x is a premium to global listed retailer P/Es, but is about 2 standard deviations below Dairy Farm’s historical average one-year forward P/E of ~24x. We apply this discount to reflect the muted earnings growth outlook for the company in the short term.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Downside risks to our rating and price target include: (1) a slowdown in SSSG in key regions the company operates in; (2) changes in the level of competitive intensity in key regions the company operates in; (3) any decrease in the level of gross margins for the group; (4) higher-than-expected increases in operating costs; and (5) changes to the regulatory environment in key countries the company operates in.

Upside risks include: (1) acceleration in the level of SSSG; (2) any decrease in the level of competitive intensity in key regions that the company operates in; (3) any unexpected increase in gross margins; (4) higher-than-expected penetration in private label; and (4) lower-than-expected growth in underlying operating costs.

Consumer

Shen Li, CFA AC

(852) 2800 8523

Bloomberg JPMA SHLI <GO>

Ebru Sener Kurumlu

(852) 2800-8521

George Hsu

(852) 2800-8559

Dylan Chu

(852) 2800-8537

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited

www.jpmorganmarkets.com


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Important Disclosures


· Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as investment banking clients: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-securities-related: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received in the past 12 months compensation from investment banking Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

· Broker: J.P. Morgan Securities plc acts as Corporate Broker to Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.

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http://gps-app.emea.jpmchase.net:6080/server/console/chart/?shareClassId=500546&shareClassServerId=4&chartDesignation=1&actionType=CHART&isAdr=false&isUSDTranslation=false&cos=false&imageTypeId=4&chartHeight=288&chartWidth=456&svrTs=1438251606446

Date

Rating

Share Price ($)

Price Target ($)

06-Mar-07

N

4.10

3.66

09-Aug-07

N

4.28

4.35

09-Mar-08

N

4.60

4.72

01-Aug-08

N

4.93

5.36

10-Mar-09

N

4.50

4.40

06-Aug-09

N

6.88

6.15

06-Mar-10

N

6.21

6.60

31-Jul-10

N

7.68

7.00

04-Mar-11

N

8.30

8.00

30-Jul-11

N

9.00

8.60

04-Mar-12

N

10.20

9.00

30-Jul-12

N

10.56

9.50

08-Mar-13

N

12.52

10.00

05-Aug-13

N

11.69

9.00

06-Mar-15

N

8.97

9.70

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated

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J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.

Coverage Universe: Li, Shen Wei: Anta Sports Products Ltd. (2020.HK), China Lilang Ltd. (1234.HK), Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited (DAIR.SI), Giordano (0709.HK), Haier Electronics Group Co (1169.HK), L'Occitane International SA (0973.HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331.HK), Qingdao Haier Co Ltd - A (600690.SS), Sa Sa International Holdings Limited (0178.HK), Samsonite International SA (1910.HK), Sun Art Retail Group Limited (6808.HK), Trinity Limited (0891.HK), Xtep International Holdings Limited (1368.HK), Yonghui Superstores Co Ltd - A (601933.SS)

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2015

Overweight
(buy)

Neutral
(hold)

Underweight
(sell)

J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage

44%

43%

13%

IB clients*

51%

48%

38%

JPMS Equity Research Coverage

45%

47%

9%

IB clients*

71%

66%

57%

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.
For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.

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Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMS plc. Investment research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require a firm to establish, implement and maintain such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. 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"Other Disclosures" last revised July 14, 2015.


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