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Asia Pacific Equity Research |
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30 July 2015 |
Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited (DFI SP) 1H15 Result – Weak result ~23% below JPMf |
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Neutral Price: $8.49 30 Jul 2015 Price Target: $9.70 PT End Date: 30 Jun 2016 |
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Dairy Farm reported a weak 1H15 result ~23% below JPMf. The result was driven by weak performance in Food with the company attributing the significant decline in earnings to cost pressures, FX headwinds and food deflation. We continue to see limited positive catalysts in the near term and would add the recent weakness in the HK retail environment and strength of the USD as additional headwinds for DFI.
· 1H15 turnover US$5,593m (JPMf US$5,790m), up 5.6% yoy (JPMf +9.3%).
· 1H15 gross profit US$1,632m (JPMf US$1,729m), implying gross margin of 29.2% (JPMf 29.9%).
· 1H15 EBIT exclusive of non-trading items US$202m (JPMf US$268m), implying EBIT margin of 3.6% (JPMf 4.6%).
· 1H15 EBIT exclusive of non-trading items + equity accounted profit US$234m (JPMf US$302m).
· 1H15 NPAT US$192m (JPMf US$246m), down 18.1% yoy (JPMf +5.1%). We note full year JPMf is currently in line with consensus.
· Interim dividend of US6.5cps declared, below JPMf US7.0cps.
· Overall, this was a particularly weak result and we expect DFI’s share price to react negatively. We note the company reported significant earnings decline despite the positive impact from the company’s acquisition of a 20% stake in Yonghui as well as the acquisition of San Miu Supermarket in Macau.
· Food performance was particularly weak with supermarket/hypermarket operating margins down ~130bps and operating profit down ~28% yoy. The company attributed the weak performance to the following factors: 1) cost pressures and food deflation for certain commodities squeezing margins in Food; 2) Higher rental and labour costs in HK; 3) Significantly lower profits in Singapore due to competitive pressures, higher rents and a weaker SGD; 4) Investments in Malaysia to attract customers; 5) High labour costs and rise in shrinkage costs associated with greater fresh sales, more rigorous stock management and store rationalisation in Indonesia; and 6) Struggling hypermarket sales in the Philippines.
· Health & Beauty sales growth also slowed on a subsidiary level, with operating profit declining ~8% due to ~90bps of operating margin compression. The company attributed the weaker performance to: 1) Lower tourist arrivals in HK & Macau; 2) Lower profitability in Malaysia following the introduction of the GST on 1st April; and 3) Wage and rent increases in Indonesia.
· Home Furnishings profitability continued to grow strongly with operating profit increasing 32% yoy and operating margins also increasing ~90bps yoy. However, strong performance in Home Furnishings could not offset the weaker performance in Food and Health & Beauty.
· On outlook, the company noted that margin pressure continues to impact financial performance for Food. The Group’s results were also negatively impacted by adverse FX movements.
· We previously highlighted our view that we see limited positive catalysts for DFI in the short term due to: 1) weak sales and margin outlook in SE Asian countries for its key Food division; and 2) a relatively expensive valuation given growth prospects. In addition, we note the following short- to medium-term headwinds: a) A weak HK retail environment likely to impact sales growth negatively and margins for both the Food and Health & Beauty business; and b) FX headwinds for key SE Asian currencies. Nevertheless, we also note a relatively stable shareholder register which may provide some share price support.
Table 1: Dairy Farm Profit & Loss Statement – Actual vs JPMf
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
|
JPMf |
|
1H13A |
2H13A |
FY13A |
1H14A |
2H14A |
FY14A |
1H15A |
|
1H15E |
Total turnover |
5,101.7 |
5,255.7 |
10,357.4 |
5,299.0 |
5,709.3 |
11,008.3 |
5,593.4 |
|
5,789.7 |
% Growth |
7.0% |
4.4% |
5.7% |
3.9% |
8.6% |
6.3% |
5.6% |
|
9.3% |
COGS |
-3,600.7 |
-3,669.7 |
-7,270.4 |
-3,721.5 |
-3,995.8 |
-7,717.3 |
-3,961.5 |
|
-4,060.3 |
Gross profit |
1,501.0 |
1,586.0 |
3,087.0 |
1,577.5 |
1,713.5 |
3,291.0 |
1,631.9 |
|
1,729.4 |
Gross margin |
29.42% |
30.18% |
29.80% |
29.77% |
30.01% |
29.90% |
29.18% |
|
29.9% |
Other operating income (underlying business) |
86.2 |
63.4 |
149.6 |
75.2 |
80.1 |
155.3 |
79.6 |
|
76.0 |
CODB |
-1,330.3 |
-1,384.0 |
-2,714.3 |
-1,407.4 |
-1,514.6 |
-2,922.0 |
-1,509.7 |
|
-1,537.0 |
CODB/Turnover |
26.1% |
26.3% |
26.2% |
26.6% |
26.5% |
26.5% |
27.0% |
|
26.5% |
EBIT (excludes interest income) |
256.9 |
265.4 |
522.3 |
245.3 |
279.0 |
524.3 |
201.8 |
|
268.3 |
EBIT margin |
5.04% |
5.05% |
5.04% |
4.63% |
4.89% |
4.76% |
3.61% |
|
4.6% |
EBIT growth |
-7.8% |
33.6% |
9.5% |
-4.5% |
5.1% |
0.4% |
-17.7% |
|
9.4% |
Share of associates and JVs (excluding non-trading items) |
22.1 |
46.8 |
68.9 |
21.6 |
47.3 |
68.9 |
31.7 |
|
33.9 |
Net interest |
-5.2 |
2.1 |
-3.1 |
1.5 |
-3.4 |
-1.9 |
-5.6 |
|
-7.2 |
Non-trading items |
0.8 |
26.0 |
26.8 |
10.4 |
-0.7 |
9.7 |
-1.2 |
|
0.0 |
PBT |
274.6 |
340.3 |
614.9 |
278.8 |
322.2 |
601.0 |
226.7 |
|
295.0 |
Income tax expense |
-43.3 |
-58.7 |
-102.0 |
-43.9 |
-49.4 |
-93.3 |
-39.5 |
|
-48.0 |
Non-controlling interests |
-2.2 |
-9.8 |
-12.0 |
-1.2 |
2.6 |
1.4 |
4.3 |
|
-1.3 |
NPAT |
229.1 |
271.8 |
500.9 |
233.7 |
275.4 |
509.1 |
191.5 |
|
245.7 |
NPAT growth |
-5.7% |
33.6% |
12.2% |
2.0% |
1.3% |
1.6% |
-18.1% |
|
5.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DPS (USc) |
6.5 |
16.5 |
23.0 |
6.5 |
16.5 |
23.0 |
6.5 |
|
7.0 |
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.
Table 2: Dairy Farm – Underlying Profitability
|
1H13A |
2H13A |
FY13A |
1H14A |
2H14A |
FY14A |
1H15A |
Sales (including associates and JVs) |
6,032.8 |
6,398.9 |
12,431.7 |
6,311.5 |
6,791.3 |
13,102.8 |
8,011.2 |
% Growth |
10.3% |
5.4% |
7.7% |
4.6% |
6.1% |
5.4% |
26.9% |
EBIT (underlying operations) |
256.9 |
265.4 |
522.3 |
245.3 |
279.0 |
524.3 |
201.8 |
Add: Share of associates and JVs |
22.1 |
46.8 |
68.9 |
21.6 |
47.3 |
68.9 |
31.7 |
EBIT + Share of associates and JVs |
279.0 |
312.2 |
591.2 |
266.9 |
326.3 |
593.2 |
233.5 |
% Growth |
-7.5% |
30.6% |
9.3% |
-4.3% |
4.5% |
0.3% |
-12.5% |
Source: Company reports.
Table 3: Dairy Farm – Food Division Financials
US$m |
1H13A |
2H13A |
FY13A |
1H14A |
2H14A |
FY14A |
1H15A |
Sales (including associates and JVs) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Supermarkets/hypermarkets |
3,216.5 |
3,242.8 |
6,459.3 |
3,226.9 |
3,317.6 |
6,544.5 |
4,684.0 |
% Growth |
11.7% |
1.5% |
6.3% |
0.3% |
2.3% |
1.3% |
45.2% |
Convenience stores |
866.1 |
914.8 |
1,780.9 |
904.3 |
955.3 |
1,859.6 |
918.9 |
% Growth |
6.7% |
5.0% |
5.8% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
1.6% |
Total |
4,082.6 |
4,157.6 |
8,240.2 |
4,131.2 |
4,272.9 |
8,404.1 |
5,602.9 |
% Growth |
10.6% |
2.3% |
6.2% |
1.2% |
2.8% |
2.0% |
35.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sales (subsidiaries only) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Supermarkets/hypermarkets |
2,985.8 |
2,989.1 |
5,974.9 |
3,005.2 |
3,244.0 |
6,249.2 |
3,212.3 |
% Growth |
5.7% |
1.4% |
3.5% |
0.6% |
8.5% |
4.6% |
6.9% |
Convenience stores |
866.1 |
914.8 |
1,780.9 |
904.3 |
955.3 |
1,859.6 |
918.9 |
% Growth |
6.7% |
5.0% |
5.8% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
1.6% |
Total |
3,851.9 |
3,903.9 |
7,755.8 |
3,909.5 |
4,199.3 |
8,108.8 |
4,131.2 |
% Growth |
5.9% |
2.2% |
4.0% |
1.5% |
7.6% |
4.6% |
5.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating profit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Supermarkets/hypermarkets |
131.6 |
116.3 |
247.9 |
117.5 |
108.4 |
225.9 |
85.1 |
% Margin |
4.41% |
3.89% |
4.15% |
3.91% |
3.34% |
3.61% |
2.65% |
% Growth |
-11.0% |
62.7% |
13.0% |
-10.7% |
-6.8% |
-8.9% |
-27.6% |
Convenience stores |
30.2 |
40.6 |
70.8 |
30.8 |
41.9 |
72.7 |
26.4 |
% Margin |
3.49% |
4.44% |
3.98% |
3.41% |
4.39% |
3.91% |
2.87% |
% Growth |
-1.6% |
4.4% |
1.7% |
2.0% |
3.2% |
2.7% |
-14.3% |
Total |
161.8 |
156.9 |
318.7 |
148.3 |
150.3 |
298.6 |
111.5 |
% Margin |
4.20% |
4.02% |
4.11% |
3.79% |
3.58% |
3.68% |
2.70% |
% Growth |
-15.8% |
62.1% |
10.3% |
-8.3% |
-4.2% |
-6.3% |
-24.8% |
Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data.
Table 4: Dairy Farm – Health & Beauty Division Financials
US$m |
1H13A |
2H13A |
FY13A |
1H14A |
2H14A |
FY14A |
1H15A |
Sales (including associates and JVs) |
1,084.0 |
1,134.5 |
2,218.5 |
1,185.1 |
1,269.4 |
2,454.5 |
1,284.1 |
% Growth |
11.4% |
10.2% |
10.7% |
9.3% |
11.9% |
10.6% |
8.4% |
Sales (subsidiaries only) |
1,064.2 |
1,115.7 |
2,179.9 |
1,163.3 |
1,238.8 |
2,402.1 |
1,191.1 |
% Growth |
11.2% |
10.3% |
10.7% |
9.3% |
11.0% |
10.2% |
2.4% |
Operating profit |
95.8 |
101.9 |
197.7 |
97.3 |
121.5 |
218.8 |
89.4 |
% Margin |
9.00% |
9.13% |
9.07% |
8.36% |
9.81% |
9.11% |
7.51% |
% Growth |
8.4% |
2.8% |
5.4% |
1.6% |
19.2% |
10.7% |
-8.1% |
Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data.
Table 5: Dairy Farm – Home Furnishing Division Financials
US$m |
1H13A |
2H13A |
FY13A |
1H14A |
2H14A |
FY14A |
1H15A |
Sales (including associates and JVs) |
185.6 |
236.1 |
421.7 |
226.2 |
271.2 |
497.4 |
271.1 |
% Growth |
6.7% |
17.2% |
12.3% |
21.9% |
14.9% |
18.0% |
19.8% |
Sales (subsidiaries only) |
185.6 |
236.1 |
421.7 |
226.2 |
271.2 |
497.4 |
271.1 |
% Growth |
6.7% |
17.2% |
12.3% |
21.9% |
14.9% |
18.0% |
19.8% |
Operating profit |
17.6 |
26.0 |
43.6 |
19.7 |
31.0 |
50.7 |
26.0 |
% Margin |
9.48% |
11.01% |
10.34% |
8.71% |
11.43% |
10.19% |
9.59% |
% Growth |
4.1% |
24.4% |
15.3% |
11.9% |
19.2% |
16.3% |
32.0% |
Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data.
We have a Neutral recommendation on Dairy Farm. We see limited positive share price catalysts in the short term due to: (1) a weak sales and margin outlook in SE Asian countries for its key Food division in the short to medium term; and (2) a relatively expensive valuation, given the muted growth outlook. Nevertheless, we believe the share price will be supported by a relatively stable shareholder register and some improving momentum.
Our Jun-16 price target of US$9.70 is based on a 20x P/E. Our target P/E of 20x is a premium to global listed retailer P/Es, but is about 2 standard deviations below Dairy Farm’s historical average one-year forward P/E of ~24x. We apply this discount to reflect the muted earnings growth outlook for the company in the short term.
Downside risks to our rating and price target include: (1) a slowdown in SSSG in key regions the company operates in; (2) changes in the level of competitive intensity in key regions the company operates in; (3) any decrease in the level of gross margins for the group; (4) higher-than-expected increases in operating costs; and (5) changes to the regulatory environment in key countries the company operates in.
Upside risks include: (1) acceleration in the level of SSSG; (2) any decrease in the level of competitive intensity in key regions that the company operates in; (3) any unexpected increase in gross margins; (4) higher-than-expected penetration in private label; and (4) lower-than-expected growth in underlying operating costs.
Consumer Shen Li, CFA AC (852) 2800 8523 shen.w.li@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA SHLI <GO> Ebru Sener Kurumlu (852) 2800-8521 ebru.sener@jpmorgan.com George Hsu (852) 2800-8559 george.hsu@jpmorgan.com Dylan Chu (852) 2800-8537 dylan.chu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited |
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Important Disclosures
· Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
· Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as investment banking clients: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
· Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
· Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-securities-related: Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
· Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received in the past 12 months compensation from investment banking Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
· Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
· Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited.
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Coverage Universe: Li, Shen Wei: Anta Sports Products Ltd. (2020.HK), China Lilang Ltd. (1234.HK), Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited (DAIR.SI), Giordano (0709.HK), Haier Electronics Group Co (1169.HK), L'Occitane International SA (0973.HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331.HK), Qingdao Haier Co Ltd - A (600690.SS), Sa Sa International Holdings Limited (0178.HK), Samsonite International SA (1910.HK), Sun Art Retail Group Limited (6808.HK), Trinity Limited (0891.HK), Xtep International Holdings Limited (1368.HK), Yonghui Superstores Co Ltd - A (601933.SS)
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Underweight |
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