Key takeaways: (1) Global copper output was up 1.2% YTD through November with early Dec data from Chile strong indicating that 2023 output was solid; this was largely matched by demand where strong China consumption offset a weak RoW demand. (2) Spot TCs have plunged from $90/t in Aug-23 to sub $30/t, indicating a tight concentrate market; meanwhile copper inventories remain at multi-year lows. Furthermore, JPM’s Global Commodity team sees a largely balanced market in 2024 and a deficit in 2025 after the recent supply disruptions (Cobre Panama, etc.) (link ). (3) Despite improving fundamentals, copper prices have moved sideways recently, with the macro economic backdrop still uninspiring. Overall, JPM’s Global Commodity team’s bullish copper view hinges on 3.5% growth in China demand, helped also by a recovery in RoW in 2HCY24. For more on the copper and base metals market, see Greg Shearer’s latest report here: Metals Weekly: The Year of the Dragon casts its long shadow over base metals for now .
On equities, JPM’s Global copper miner stock ratings are in the comps table below. Based on our constructive copper outlook, we have a positive bias in stock ratings across our global copper coverage, noting we recently upgraded SFR to an Overweight (link ). With the broader sector trading at a 2025E EV/EBITDA of 5.6x, and with a 2025E dividend yield of 5.1%, we see good valuation support among the copper equities.
Companies Discussed in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on 06 February 2024, unless otherwise indicated)Sandfire Resources(SFR.AX/A$6.99/OW)
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Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to Sandfire Resources.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Sandfire Resources.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Sandfire Resources, if any.
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Date Rating Price (A$) Price Target (A$)
25-Feb-21 N 5.58 5.5
05-Mar-21 N 6.08 6.7
09-Apr-21 N 5.52 6.5
28-Apr-21 N 6.32 6.7
21-Jun-21 N 6.70 7.3
29-Jul-21 N 6.82 7.5
31-Aug-21 N 6.50 7.2
13-Sep-21 N 6.32 6.4
01-Oct-21 N 5.48 5.7
28-Oct-21 N 5.70 5.5
20-Jan-22 UW 7.19 5.6
28-Feb-22 UW 7.00 5
28-Apr-22 UW 5.20 4.8
04-Jul-22 UW 4.40 3.8
06-Sep-22 N 3.89 3.8
30-Sep-22 N 3.75 3.3
18-Nov-22 UW 4.74 3.6
14-Dec-22 UW 5.34 4.5
03-Apr-23 UW 6.33 5.3
27-Apr-23 UW 6.60 5.1
14-Jul-23 N 6.25 5.7
27-Jul-23 N 6.00 6
31-Aug-23 N 6.51 5.8
04-Oct-23 N 6.10 5.7
11-Dec-23 N 6.50 6.3
30-Jan-24 OW 6.86 8.1
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
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Coverage Universe: Fagan, Lyndon : Alumina Limited (AWC.AX), BHP (BHP.AX), BlueScope Steel (BSL.AX), Deterra Royalties (DRR.AX), Fortescue (FMG.AX), IGO Ltd. (IGO.AX), Leo Lithium (LLL.AX), Liontown Resources (LTR.AX), Mineral Resources Ltd. (MIN.AX), Rio Tinto Limited (RIO.AX), Sandfire Resources (SFR.AX), Sims Limited (SGM.AX), South32 (S32.AX)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 01, 2024
Overweight (buy)Neutral (hold)Underweight (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage*
47%
39%
13%
IB clients**
48%
43%
32%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage*
46%
42%
12%
IB clients**
68%
63%
46%
*Please note that the percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months. For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution rules only, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. This information is current as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter.
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Completed 07 Feb 2024 04:29 PM AEDT Disseminated 07 Feb 2024 04:29 PM AEDT
