Economic Research
US: Initial claims move down to 217,000
November 9, 2023
US: Initial claims move down to 217,000
US: Initial claims move down to 217,000
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of & clients of J.P. Morgan.

US: Initial claims move down to 217,000

Initial claims declined from 220,000 to 217,000 during the week ending November 4, coming out close to expectations. Filings have been coming in at low levels recently through some noise in the weekly figures, which signals continued strength in the labor market. Continuing claims, meanwhile, rose from 1.812mn to 1.834mn during the week ending October 28. While continuing claims filings are now up in seven straight weeks (in seasonally adjusted terms) the levels of filings remain low by broad historic standards.

Jobless claims (regular state programs, seasonally adjusted)
Sep 23 Sep 30 Oct 7 Oct 14¹ Oct 21 Oct 28 Nov 4
Initial claims (000s) 205 209 211 200 212 220 217
Weekly change 3 4 2 -11 12 8 -3
4-week moving average 211 209 207 206 208 211 212
Weekly change -6 -2 -3 -1 2 3 2
Continuing claims (000s) 1672 1705 1727 1783 1812 1834
Weekly change 7 33 22 56 29 22
4-week moving average 1670 1675 1692 1722 1757 1789
Weekly change -3 6 17 30 35 32
Insured unemployment rate (%) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Source: US Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan forecasts.1. Employment survey week.

Analysts' Compensation: The research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.

Other Disclosures

J.P. Morgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide.

UK MIFID FICC research unbundling exemption: UK clients should refer to UK MIFID Research Unbundling exemption for details of JPMorgan’s implementation of the FICC research exemption and guidance on relevant FICC research categorisation.

Any long form nomenclature for references to China; Hong Kong; Taiwan; and Macau within this research material are Mainland China; Hong Kong SAR (China); Taiwan (China); and Macau SAR (China).

J.P. Morgan Research may, from time to time, write on issuers or securities targeted by economic or financial sanctions imposed or administered by the governmental authorities of the U.S., EU, UK or other relevant jurisdictions (Sanctioned Securities). Nothing in this report is intended to be read or construed as encouraging, facilitating, promoting or otherwise approving investment or dealing in such Sanctioned Securities. Clients should be aware of their own legal and compliance obligations when making investment decisions.

Any digital or crypto assets discussed in this research report are subject to a rapidly changing regulatory landscape. For relevant regulatory advisories on crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, please see

The author(s) of this research report may not be licensed to carry on regulated activities in your jurisdiction and, if not licensed, do not hold themselves out as being able to do so.

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”) acts as authorized participant for substantially all U.S.-listed ETFs. To the extent that any ETFs are mentioned in this report, JPMS may earn commissions and transaction-based compensation in connection with the distribution of those ETF shares and may earn fees for performing other trade-related services, such as securities lending to short sellers of the ETF shares. JPMS may also perform services for the ETFs themselves, including acting as a broker or dealer to the ETFs. In addition, affiliates of JPMS may perform services for the ETFs, including trust, custodial, administration, lending, index calculation and/or maintenance and other services.

Changes to Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and other benchmark rates: Certain interest rate benchmarks are, or may in the future become, subject to ongoing international, national and other regulatory guidance, reform and proposals for reform. For more information, please consult:

Private Bank Clients: Where you are receiving research as a client of the private banking businesses offered by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries (“J.P. Morgan Private Bank”), research is provided to you by J.P. Morgan Private Bank and not by any other division of J.P. Morgan, including, but not limited to, the J.P. Morgan Corporate and Investment Bank and its Global Research division.

Legal entity responsible for the production and distribution of research: The legal entity identified below the name of the Reg AC Research Analyst who authored this material is the legal entity responsible for the production of this research. Where multiple Reg AC Research Analysts authored this material with different legal entities identified below their names, these legal entities are jointly responsible for the production of this research. Research Analysts from various J.P. Morgan affiliates may have contributed to the production of this material but may not be licensed to carry out regulated activities in your jurisdiction (and do not hold themselves out as being able to do so). Unless otherwise stated below, this material has been distributed by the legal entity responsible for production. If you have any queries, please contact the relevant Research Analyst in your jurisdiction or the entity in your jurisdiction that has distributed this research material.

Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures: Argentina: JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A Sucursal Buenos Aires is regulated by Banco Central de la República Argentina (“BCRA”- Central Bank of Argentina) and Comisión Nacional de Valores (“CNV”- Argentinian Securities Commission” - ALYC y AN Integral N°51). Australia: J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (“JPMSAL”) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-X. This material is issued and distributed in Australia by or on behalf of JPMSAL only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001). A list of all financial products covered can be found by visiting J.P. Morgan seeks to cover companies of relevance to the domestic and international investor base across all Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors, as well as across a range of market capitalisation sizes. If applicable, in the course of conducting public side due diligence on the subject company(ies), the Research Analyst team may at times perform such diligence through corporate engagements such as site visits, discussions with company representatives, management presentations, etc. Research issued by JPMSAL has been prepared in accordance with J.P. Morgan Australia’s Research Independence Policy which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan Australia - Research Independence Policy. Brazil : Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Ombudsman J.P. Morgan: 0800-7700847 / Canada : J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. is a registered investment dealer, regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and the Ontario Securities Commission and is the participating member on Canadian exchanges. This material is distributed in Canada by or on behalf of J.P.Morgan Securities Canada Inc. Chile: Inversiones J.P. Morgan Limitada is an unregulated entity incorporated in Chile. China: J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited has been approved by CSRC to conduct the securities investment consultancy business. Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) : JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - The Gate, West Wing, Level 3 and 9 PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. This material has been distributed by JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch to persons regarded as professional clients or market counterparties as defined under the DFSA rules. European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, research is distributed in the EEA by J.P. Morgan SE (“JPM SE”), which is subject to prudential supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”) in cooperation with BaFin and Deutsche Bundesbank in Germany. JPM SE is a company headquartered in Frankfurt with registered address at TaunusTurm, Taunustor 1, Frankfurt am Main, 60310, Germany. The material has been distributed in the EEA to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) pursuant to Art. 4 para. 1 no. 10 and Annex II of MiFID II and its respective implementation in their home jurisdictions (“EEA professional investors”). This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not EEA professional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this material relates is only available to EEA relevant persons and will be engaged in only with EEA relevant persons. Hong Kong : J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong, and J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited (CE number AAB027) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch (CE Number AAL996) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission, is organized under the laws of the United States with limited liability. Where the distribution of this material is a regulated activity in Hong Kong, the material is distributed in Hong Kong by or through J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited and/or J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited. India : J.P. Morgan India Private Limited (Corporate Identity Number - U67120MH1992FTC068724), having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz - East, Mumbai – 400098, is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a ‘Research Analyst’ having registration number INH000001873. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited is also registered with SEBI as a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number – INZ000239730) and as a Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration Number - MB/INM000002970). Telephone: 91-22-6157 3000, Facsimile: 91-22-6157 3990 and Website: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. - Mumbai Branch is licensed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (Licence No. 53/ Licence No. BY.4/94; SEBI - IN/CUS/014/ CDSL : IN-DP-CDSL-444-2008/ IN-DP-NSDL-285-2008/ INBI00000984/ INE231311239) as a Scheduled Commercial Bank in India, which is its primary license allowing it to carry on Banking business in India and other activities, which a Bank branch in India are permitted to undertake. For non-local research material, this material is not distributed in India by J.P. Morgan India Private Limited. Compliance Officer: Spurthi Gadamsetty;; +912261573225. Grievance Officer: Ramprasadh K,; +912261573000.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Indonesia : PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is registered and supervised by the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Korea : J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch, is a member of the Korea Exchange (KRX). JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Seoul Branch, is licensed as a branch office of foreign bank (JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.) in Korea. Both entities are regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS). For non-macro research material, the material is distributed in Korea by or through J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch. Japan : JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Tokyo Branch are regulated by the Financial Services Agency in Japan. Malaysia : This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X), which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and holds a Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Mexico : J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.and J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero are members of the Mexican Stock Exchange and are authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. New Zealand : This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013). JPMSAL is registered as a Financial Service Provider under the Financial Service providers (Registration and Dispute Resolution) Act of 2008. Pakistan : J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Philippines : J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a Trading Participant of the Philippine Stock Exchange and a member of the Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines and the Securities Investor Protection Fund. It is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Russia : CB J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC is regulated by the Central Bank of Russia. Singapore : This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by or through J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MCI (P) 030/08/2023 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R], which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited, and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore), both of which are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material is issued and distributed in Singapore only to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors, as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap. 289 (SFA). This material is not intended to be issued or distributed to any retail investors or any other investors that do not fall into the classes of “accredited investors,” “expert investors” or “institutional investors,” as defined under Section 4A of the SFA. Recipients of this material in Singapore are to contact JPMSS or JPMCB Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the material. As at the date of this material, JPMSS is a designated market maker for certain structured warrants listed on the Singapore Exchange where the underlying securities may be the securities discussed in this material. Arising from its role as a designated market maker for such structured warrants, JPMSS may conduct hedging activities in respect of such underlying securities and hold or have an interest in such underlying securities as a result. The updated list of structured warrants for which JPMSS acts as designated market maker may be found on the website of the Singapore Exchange Limited: South Africa : J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg Branch are members of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and are regulated by the Financial Services Board. Taiwan : J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. Material relating to equity securities is issued and distributed in Taiwan by J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited, subject to the license scope and the applicable laws and the regulations in Taiwan. According to Paragraph 2, Article 7-1 of Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers (as amended or supplemented) and/or other applicable laws or regulations, please note that the recipient of this material is not permitted to engage in any activities in connection with the material that may give rise to conflicts of interests, unless otherwise disclosed in the “Important Disclosures” in this material. Thailand : This material is issued and distributed in Thailand by JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Ltd., which is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and its registered address is 3rd Floor, 20 North Sathorn Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500. UK: Unless specified to the contrary, research is distributed in the UK by J.P. Morgan Securities plc (“JPMS plc”) which is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. JPMS plc is registered in England & Wales No. 2711006, Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. This material is directed in the UK only to: (a) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) (Order) 2005 (“the FPO”); (b) persons outlined in article 49 of the FPO (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations or partnerships, the trustees of high value trusts, etc.); or (c) any persons to whom this communication may otherwise lawfully be made; all such persons being referred to as "UK relevant persons". This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not UK relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this material relates is only available to UK relevant persons and will be engaged in only with UK relevant persons. Research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policy for prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest related to the production of Research which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan EMEA - Research Independence Policy. U.S .: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”) is a member of the NYSE, FINRA, SIPC, and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of the FDIC. Material published by non-U.S. affiliates is distributed in the U.S. by JPMS who accepts responsibility for its content.

General: Additional information is available upon request. The information in this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this material are accurate and that the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) make no representations or warranties whatsoever to the completeness or accuracy of the material provided, except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and the Research Analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the material. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this material. There may be certain discrepancies with data and/or limited content in this material as a result of calculations, adjustments, translations to different languages, and/or local regulatory restrictions, as applicable. These discrepancies should not impact the overall investment analysis, views and/or recommendations of the subject company(ies) that may be discussed in the material. J.P. Morgan accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents, and neither J.P. Morgan nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof, apart from the liabilities and responsibilities that may be imposed on them by the relevant regulatory authority in the jurisdiction in question, or the regulatory regime thereunder. Opinions, forecasts or projections contained in this material represent J.P. Morgan's current opinions or judgment as of the date of the material only and are therefore subject to change without notice. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or projections, which represent only one possible outcome. Furthermore, such opinions, forecasts or projections are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that have not been verified, and future actual results or events could differ materially. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to in this material may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. All pricing is indicative as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. This material may include views on structured securities, options, futures and other derivatives. These are complex instruments, may involve a high degree of risk and may be appropriate investments only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The recipients of this material must make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein and should seek advice from such independent financial, legal, tax or other adviser as they deem necessary. J.P. Morgan may trade as a principal on the basis of the Research Analysts’ views and research, and it may also engage in transactions for its own account or for its clients’ accounts in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this material, and J.P. Morgan is under no obligation to ensure that such other communication is brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Others within J.P. Morgan, including Strategists, Sales staff and other Research Analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this material. Employees of J.P. Morgan not involved in the preparation of this material may have investments in the securities (or derivatives of such securities) mentioned in this material and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this material. This material is not an advertisement for or marketing of any issuer, its products or services, or its securities in any jurisdiction.

Confidentiality and Security Notice : This transmission may contain information that is privileged, confidential, legally privileged, and/or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the information contained herein (including any reliance thereon) is STRICTLY PROHIBITED. Although this transmission and any attachments are believed to be free of any virus or other defect that might affect any computer system into which it is received and opened, it is the responsibility of the recipient to ensure that it is virus free and no responsibility is accepted by JPMorgan Chase & Co., its subsidiaries and affiliates, as applicable, for any loss or damage arising in any way from its use. If you received this transmission in error, please immediately contact the sender and destroy the material in its entirety, whether in electronic or hard copy format. This message is subject to electronic monitoring:

MSCI: Certain information herein (“Information”) is reproduced by permission of MSCI Inc., its affiliates and information providers (“MSCI”) ©2023. No reproduction or dissemination of the Information is permitted without an appropriate license. MSCI MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES (INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS) AS TO THE INFORMATION AND DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW. No Information constitutes investment advice, except for any applicable Information from MSCI ESG Research. Subject also to

"Other Disclosures" last revised October 21, 2023.

Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party. #$J&098$#*P

Completed 09 Nov 2023 08:56 AM ESTDisseminated 09 Nov 2023 08:56 AM EST